Analysis: Should Putin be worried about Trump's threats of new sanctions?

Nga A2 CNN
2025-01-24 14:26:00 | Bota

Analysis: Should Putin be worried about Trump's threats of new sanctions?

Long before he took office this week and before the November election, President Donald Trump has vowed to facilitate a deal to end Russia's war against Ukraine, though he has given few details on how he would achieve that.

On January 22, two days after taking office, Trump outlined a course of action he would take to bring Russia to the negotiating table, an initial but crucial and challenging step toward a deal. He said he would impose additional sanctions on Moscow if it did not comply.

"If we do not make a 'deal', I will soon have no choice but to impose high-level taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on everything sold by Russia to the United States, and on the various participating countries," Trump wrote on his social network, Truth Social.

In the past, Trump has praised Putin, criticized the US for supporting Ukraine and insisted on a quick end to the war, raising concerns among Ukraine's supporters that he might sacrifice Kiev's interests in the name of a deal that would ultimately empower Russia.

But Trump has been speaking harshly this week. The Jan. 22 post was the latest in a string of comments in which he said war is destroying Russia and that Putin should seek peace before it's too late. Russia's economy is "failing," the US president wrote.

"Do we have the enemy on our doorstep?"

The tone and content of Trump's comments have been welcomed by Kiev, but also by the West, which is seeking pressure on Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said Trump's statements sent a "strong signal."

Meanwhile, Moscow wasted no time in responding, saying that threatening new sanctions would not get the job done. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on January 23 that the Kremlin sees "nothing particularly new here."

Pro-Kremlin moderator Vladimir Solovyov reacted similarly, but used harsher language – a blatant attempt to tell Russians not to worry.

"What? Is it possible to talk to Russia that way?" he said in a comment posted on Telegram.

"Are we losing the war? Has the enemy come to our doorstep?" he asked.

These statements reflect Putin's outward confidence that the war is going well for Russia, despite the heavy losses it has suffered while making gradual advances on the battlefield, and that the economy is coping with the challenges, despite high inflation and other problems.

However, beneath that exterior, concerns may be lurking on both sides, and some experts said Trump's new threat of sanctions will heighten their concerns.

"I think this has really shaken the Kremlin," Nigel Gould-Davies, a researcher on Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, told Radio Free Europe.

Gould-Davies said Trump is "showing at the first possible moment that he is serious about this," adding that Ukraine and its supporters are concerned that "his main way to end the war would be to pressure Ukraine and limit support."

At least in these statements, according to Gould-Davies, Trump "is indicating that the problem of ending the war should be resolved on terms that force Putin to make concessions, rather than forcing Ukraine... It has not been at all clear that he would do this."

On January 23, the Reuters news agency cited "five sources" who said that Putin was "increasingly concerned about the distortions in Russia's wartime economy." Reuters also quoted former deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, Oleg Vyugin, as saying: "Russia, of course, is economically interested in negotiating a diplomatic end to the conflict."

Growing economic problems "have contributed to the creation of a view within part of the Russian elite that a negotiated solution to the war is desirable," Reuters quoted two of the sources as saying, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Trump's threats "put Putin in a difficult situation," former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landisbergis wrote on the X platform.

"Now, Putin must choose - admit that he fears new sanctions because his economy is collapsing, or prove that his imperialist ambitions will not be limited by these demands," he added.

Some analysts are much more skeptical, saying that economic problems will not push Putin to abandon his goal of subjugating Ukraine, even if a ceasefire or peace agreement would leave Russia unofficially in control of the roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory it has occupied.

“We should avoid overestimating the impact of these economic concerns on Putin’s plans for Ukraine,” Tatyana Stanovaya, a fellow at the Carnegie Center, told X. “In my opinion, regardless of the economic situation, Putin will continue to seek an end to the war on Russia’s terms. For him, this is an existential conflict. He is deeply convinced that, without a ‘friendly Ukraine,’ Russia’s long-term survival is at risk.”

Secondary sanctions and the “dark fleet”

Some other experts argue that severe sanctions on the Russian economy could change Putin's calculations.

However, skeptics point to the fact that successive rounds of sanctions imposed by the West since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 have not weakened him. Another question is what possible punitive measures remain, after the Biden administration imposed sanctions just days before Trump's inauguration that US officials described as the toughest yet.

Substantial sanctions are still possible, according to Gould-Davies.

"The United States has this unique and formidable weapon of secondary sanctions," he said, referring to measures imposed not on Russia itself but to prevent other states and entities from conducting transactions that could help Moscow in this war.

Washington and the West could also increase sanctions on Russia's "dark fleet," often old and unsafe ships that are used to circumvent sanctions and keep oil revenues flowing.

Rachel Ziemba, a sanctions expert at the Center for a New American Security, said that enforcing existing economic sanctions and imposing secondary sanctions would be the most important steps the Trump administration could take.

Russia has managed to mitigate the impact of numerous US sanctions and technology bans with the help of intermediaries in third countries such as China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Ziemba said these countries would be affected by secondary sanctions.

China has played a particularly important role in supporting Russia through facilitating shipments of dual-use technology and purchasing oil.

"The question is, would the Trump administration be more willing than the Biden administration to sanction Chinese banks that support Russia's military chains or buy Russian oil," she said./ REL (A2 Televizion)

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